Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is fighting for her political future after Deputy Premier Ben Carroll confirmed he will challenge for the Labor leadership, claiming the Premier has lost the confidence of the majority of the parliamentary caucus.

The leadership challenge marks the most significant internal crisis faced by the Victorian Labor Government since Jacinta Allan succeeded Daniel Andrews as Premier in 2023. It comes just four months before Victorians are due to vote at the state election, dramatically raising the political stakes for the governing party.

On Monday, Ben Carroll confirmed he would nominate for the leadership after telling Allan he believed she no longer commanded majority support within the Labor caucus.

According to multiple reports, a cross-factional group of Labor MPs and ministers met with the Premier to urge her to resign voluntarily. The delegation reportedly argued that declining public support and worsening polling left the party at serious risk of losing government if it entered the election under the current leadership.

Rather than stepping aside, Allan rejected those calls.

She declared she would contest any leadership ballot and instructed the Victorian Labor Party secretary to prepare the necessary process if members wished to challenge her. Her decision ensures the dispute will move to a formal leadership contest unless one side backs down beforehand.

Carroll said he had not reached his decision lightly.

Having previously stood publicly beside Allan during earlier leadership speculation, the Deputy Premier said circumstances had changed and that preserving Labor’s chances at the November election now required new leadership. He argued the government could not ignore mounting evidence that it had lost public confidence.

The rebellion appears notable not only because of its scale but also because of the range of MPs involved.

Reports indicate dissatisfaction extends across both Labor’s Left and Right factions, including members who had previously supported Allan. Such cross-factional cooperation is unusual in Victorian Labor leadership contests and reflects growing concern about the government’s electoral position.

The immediate trigger for the revolt has been a combination of poor opinion polling and concern over the government’s political standing.

A recent Newspoll found the Liberal-Nationals Coalition leading Labor on a two-party-preferred basis, while Premier Allan’s personal approval ratings remained deeply negative. The survey also suggested One Nation has significantly increased its support in Victoria, adding further pressure on Labor strategists ahead of the election campaign.

Labor MPs have reportedly become increasingly anxious that continued leadership instability could hand the Coalition a realistic opportunity to return to government after more than a decade in opposition.

Several ministers are understood to believe changing leader now offers a better chance of resetting the government’s public image before voters head to the polls later this year.

The leadership dispute also comes against a difficult policy backdrop.

The Allan Government has faced sustained criticism over crime, cost-of-living pressures, infrastructure spending, state debt and allegations of organised crime infiltration into parts of Victoria’s construction sector. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson has repeatedly argued the government has lost control of key policy areas, while internal Labor critics worry these issues are eroding support in suburban and regional electorates.

Ben Carroll enters the contest as one of Labor’s most experienced ministers.

First elected to Parliament in 2012, he has served across numerous portfolios including public transport, industry, education and deputy premier. Carroll previously challenged Allan for the leadership following Daniel Andrews’ resignation in 2023 before ultimately accepting the deputy leadership as part of a negotiated factional agreement.

Supporters describe Carroll as a strong campaigner capable of reconnecting Labor with suburban voters and improving the party’s electoral prospects. Critics, however, question whether replacing a premier only months before an election risks reinforcing perceptions of instability within the government.

The mechanics of any leadership change could also become complex.

Under Victorian Labor’s rules, if multiple candidates remain after caucus voting, the leadership process may involve both parliamentary members and rank-and-file party members. Nevertheless, many senior Labor figures are reportedly seeking a negotiated outcome before any extended contest occurs, hoping to minimise further political damage.

For Allan, the coming days are likely to determine whether she remains Premier.

Although she continues to insist she has every intention of leading Labor into the state election, the public declaration by her deputy that she has lost caucus support represents the most direct challenge to her authority since taking office. Whether she can convince enough MPs to reverse course remains uncertain.

The leadership struggle has broader implications beyond internal Labor politics.

Victoria has traditionally been one of Labor’s strongest states, but the government now faces an increasingly competitive electoral environment shaped by concerns over the economy, public services, crime and living costs. A change of premier could reset Labor’s campaign narrative—or deepen perceptions of division—depending on how the contest unfolds.

For voters, the episode highlights the intense pressure facing governments approaching elections after extended periods in office. For Labor MPs, the decision now centres on whether continuity under Jacinta Allan offers the best chance of retaining government or whether installing Ben Carroll provides a stronger path into the November campaign. Whatever the outcome, the leadership battle has become one of the defining political events in Victoria ahead of the state election.