Victorian Labor’s dramatic leadership change has yet to deliver the electoral breakthrough the party was hoping for, with two fresh opinion polls suggesting the Coalition remains in the stronger position just months before voters head to the polls.

Last week, Labor MPs replaced Jacinta Allan with Ben Carroll in a high-stakes attempt to reset the government’s fortunes after months of poor polling and growing concern within caucus about the party’s chances of securing another term.

Carroll wasted little time trying to draw a line under the previous administration, declaring shortly after taking office: “I am not Daniel Andrews. I am not Jacinta Allan.” The message was intended to convince voters that Labor was entering a new chapter after more than a decade in government.

However, the first major polling conducted following the leadership transition suggests the political reset has not yet translated into an election-winning advantage.

A Freshwater Strategy poll of 1,020 Victorian voters, conducted between July 31 and August 3, found the Liberal and National Coalition leading Labor on primary vote, with the Coalition on 30 per cent, Labor on 25 per cent and One Nation on 22 per cent. On a two-party-preferred basis, the Coalition remained ahead 52-48, indicating it would currently be favoured to form government if those numbers were replicated at the November election.

The survey nevertheless offered Labor some encouragement.

More than 80 per cent of respondents said they were aware of the leadership change, demonstrating that the political switch quickly reached voters across the state.

Among those surveyed, 26 per cent said replacing Allan with Carroll made them more likely to consider voting Labor, while only 12 per cent said it made them less likely to support the government. The majority indicated the change would not alter their voting intention.

Those figures suggest the leadership change has stopped some of Labor’s recent decline but has not yet persuaded enough undecided or dissatisfied voters to shift the overall electoral contest in the government’s favour.

The polling also points to an ongoing challenge for Carroll personally.

Despite enjoying the advantage of being a relatively new premier, only a minority of respondents said they trusted Carroll and Labor to act in Victoria’s best interests, while Opposition Leader Jess Wilson continued to record stronger trust and preferred premier ratings in the Freshwater survey.

The findings broadly align with another recently published poll that also placed the Coalition ahead while suggesting Carroll has improved Labor’s position compared with the final weeks of Allan’s leadership, but not sufficiently to erase the government’s broader electoral deficit.

Labor’s leadership change came after months of deteriorating polling that placed increasing pressure on Jacinta Allan.

Earlier Freshwater polling during June showed Labor slipping behind both the Coalition and a surging One Nation on primary vote, prompting widespread speculation over whether the government needed a new leader before the state election.

The decision to elevate Carroll represented one of the most significant political interventions within Victorian Labor since Daniel Andrews resigned in 2023.

Party strategists hope Carroll can reconnect Labor with suburban and regional voters who have become increasingly concerned about cost-of-living pressures, infrastructure priorities, public services and community safety.

Since taking office, Carroll has attempted to present himself as representing a different governing style while emphasising practical issues over political continuity.

Even so, the latest polling indicates many Victorians remain cautious about whether a change of premier alone is enough to alter their assessment of a government that has now been in office for more than a decade.

Another notable feature of the polling is the continued strength of One Nation, which remains a significant force despite recording a slight decline from previous polling. The party’s support continues to shape what analysts describe as an increasingly competitive three-way contest, particularly in parts of regional and outer-suburban Victoria.

The Coalition, meanwhile, continues to benefit from broader voter sentiment favouring political change after 12 years of Labor government.

Political analysts have noted that leadership changes often provide governments with an immediate boost in public support, but sustained improvements typically depend on whether voters perceive meaningful policy or performance changes rather than simply a new face at the top.

For Carroll, the coming months are therefore likely to be crucial.

With Parliament continuing to debate issues including housing affordability, infrastructure spending, health services, transport projects and cost-of-living pressures, the new premier has only a relatively short period to convince voters that his leadership represents more than a symbolic reset.

The Coalition, led by Jess Wilson, is also seeking to capitalise on public appetite for change while arguing Victoria requires a new government after three consecutive Labor terms.

Although opinion polls are snapshots rather than predictions of election outcomes, the consistency across recent surveys suggests Labor still faces a substantial challenge despite replacing its leader.

The latest polling indicates the leadership transition may have stabilised Labor’s position and improved perceptions among some voters, but it has not yet produced the decisive swing needed to move the government into an election-winning position.

With several months remaining before Victorians cast their ballots, both major parties are expected to intensify campaigning as they compete for undecided voters who could ultimately determine the outcome of one of the state’s most closely watched elections in years.