Fresh polling and electoral modelling have intensified debate over Australia’s political landscape, with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation increasingly viewed as a significant force capable of reshaping contests across multiple electorates at the next federal election.

While Labor continues to lead on a two-party-preferred basis in several national surveys, recent polling indicates One Nation has established itself as a major political player, placing pressure on both major parties and threatening the electoral security of a number of high-profile MPs.

The latest discussion follows analysis highlighted by broadcaster 2GB, which argued that several prominent politicians are now “on the firing line” as One Nation’s support expands into seats previously regarded as relatively secure.

Political analysts note that One Nation’s influence extends beyond the possibility of winning additional seats itself. The party’s growing primary vote has the potential to alter preference flows, reshape marginal contests and complicate electoral strategies for both Labor and the Coalition.

One of the strongest indicators of the party’s momentum comes from recent modelling by DemosAU, which projects that One Nation could dramatically expand its representation if current voting patterns were replicated at an election.

The model suggests the party could become highly competitive in several regional electorates, particularly across Queensland, where demographic trends and dissatisfaction with the major parties appear to be driving stronger support.

Among the most closely watched seats are Kennedy and Leichhardt in Far North Queensland, where the modelling assigns One Nation a strong chance of victory should current trends continue. Researchers caution, however, that the projections are based on statistical modelling and do not account for local campaigning, candidate quality or unforeseen political developments before polling day.

National polling presents a more nuanced picture.

A recent Pulse/YouGov survey commissioned by News24 found Labor leading the Coalition by 53–47 on a two-party-preferred basis and leading One Nation by 56–44.

Even so, One Nation recorded a substantial national primary vote, reinforcing its position as one of Australia’s most influential minor parties despite a slight decline from earlier polling highs.

The figures underline an important feature of Australia’s preferential voting system.

Primary vote support alone does not determine election outcomes, but it can significantly influence preference distributions and the composition of Parliament.

As One Nation’s vote grows, both Labor and the Coalition face increasing challenges in securing enough preferences to retain marginal seats or win new ones.

Political observers say the party’s rise reflects broader dissatisfaction among sections of the electorate over cost-of-living pressures, housing affordability, energy prices, immigration and confidence in traditional political institutions.

These issues have become central themes in One Nation’s recent campaigns and have resonated particularly strongly in parts of regional Australia.

The Coalition faces its own strategic dilemma.

While some conservative voters have shifted toward One Nation, senior Liberal figures continue to reject the prospect of a formal governing alliance.

Opposition Leader Angus Taylor has ruled out a coalition agreement with Pauline Hanson’s party, arguing the Liberals are focused on winning government in their own right.

Other Coalition MPs have similarly distanced themselves from suggestions of a formal partnership, although some have acknowledged that One Nation’s electoral strength cannot be ignored.

Labor, meanwhile, has increasingly framed One Nation’s rise as evidence of growing fragmentation across the conservative side of politics.

Senior Labor strategists have argued that any future parliament could become significantly more complex if support continues shifting away from the traditional major-party structure.

At the same time, Labor recognises that One Nation’s appeal is not confined to Coalition-held seats.

Analysts have observed the party attracting support from disaffected working-class voters who previously backed Labor, particularly in regional communities concerned about economic conditions and government priorities.

One Nation’s recent electoral performances have reinforced those observations.

The party has expanded its parliamentary representation in recent years and achieved several notable electoral breakthroughs, demonstrating that it can convert strong polling into parliamentary success under favourable circumstances.

Its growing organisational capacity, increased campaign funding and broader candidate recruitment have also contributed to perceptions that it is now a more disciplined political organisation than in previous election cycles.

Despite that momentum, political scientists caution against interpreting any single poll or statistical model as a prediction of the final election outcome.

Australian elections are frequently influenced by local candidate recognition, preference negotiations, campaign performance and events occurring during the election period itself.

Minor-party support can also fluctuate significantly over the course of an election campaign.

Nevertheless, the consistency of recent polling has prompted both major parties to devote greater attention to electorates where One Nation is polling strongly.

Campaign strategies are increasingly being tailored to address issues that have driven support toward the party, including living costs, energy policy, crime, migration and regional economic development.

Political commentators say the emergence of a stronger One Nation also reflects broader structural changes in Australian politics.

Over recent decades, support for the major parties has gradually declined while minor parties and independents have gained larger shares of the national vote.

This fragmentation has made elections less predictable and increased the likelihood that crossbench MPs will hold the balance of power in closely contested parliaments.

For high-profile MPs, that changing landscape creates additional electoral uncertainty.

Seats once considered comfortably safe can become competitive if enough voters shift their first preferences or if preference flows change significantly between elections.

Although the identity of those most at risk varies between polling models and individual electorates, analysts broadly agree that One Nation’s expanding vote has become an important factor in campaign planning across several states.

Whether the party ultimately converts that support into additional seats remains one of the key unanswered questions ahead of the next federal election.

What appears increasingly clear, however, is that neither Labor nor the Coalition can afford to ignore One Nation’s influence.

Its growing presence is reshaping campaign strategies, altering electoral calculations and increasing pressure on prominent incumbents across Australia’s political landscape.

As the election approaches, further polling will determine whether the current trend represents a temporary surge or a lasting realignment of Australian politics.

Regardless of the eventual outcome, recent surveys suggest One Nation has moved well beyond its traditional role as a protest party and is now a significant force capable of influencing who governs after the next election.