One Nation says its supporters are becoming increasingly committed as new polling suggests a significant proportion of the party’s voters remain firmly behind Pauline Hanson despite months of intense political scrutiny.

The party has highlighted findings from a recent YouGov survey indicating One Nation was polling at 26 per cent on the primary vote, with 56 per cent of its supporters describing themselves as firmly committed to voting for the party. One Nation argues the figures demonstrate that many of its voters are not simply casting protest votes but are becoming increasingly loyal supporters.

The polling has been welcomed by senior One Nation figures, including former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, who believes the political landscape has shifted considerably since Australians last voted at a federal election.

“People have had a gut full, and I think that’s across Australia,” Joyce said, arguing that frustration with the major parties extends well beyond One Nation’s traditional support base. He suggested that even if One Nation did not exist, another political movement would likely emerge to capture similar voter dissatisfaction because “the world’s changed”.

Much of that frustration centres on the cost of living.

High grocery prices, rising mortgage repayments, expensive rental housing, electricity bills and insurance costs have remained among the most important issues identified by Australian voters throughout 2026. Inflation has eased from its earlier peak, but many households continue to feel financial pressure despite lower headline inflation. That environment has created opportunities for minor parties promising significant policy change.

One Nation has increasingly focused its campaign on issues including migration, housing affordability, energy policy and government spending, arguing that existing policies have weakened Australia’s economic position and reduced living standards.

The party also points to survey findings showing widespread public pessimism about the country’s direction. According to polling cited by One Nation, 51 per cent of Australians believe the country has become weaker and poorer over the past year, while only 15 per cent believe it has become stronger. The party argues those sentiments explain why increasing numbers of voters are looking beyond Labor and the Coalition.

Political analysts say One Nation’s rise has been driven by several overlapping factors rather than a single issue.

Housing affordability remains a major concern for younger Australians, while many regional communities continue expressing dissatisfaction over energy costs, agricultural policy and infrastructure spending. Immigration levels have also become a prominent issue following sustained population growth, adding further momentum to parties advocating tighter border and migration policies.

Despite those gains, polling also suggests One Nation’s recent momentum has become more volatile.

While the YouGov figures promoted by the party show support remaining historically high, more recent polling has recorded a decline from earlier peaks. The latest Sky News Pulse survey found One Nation’s primary vote slipped four percentage points to 26 per cent after a series of controversies involving party leader Pauline Hanson. Labor returned to first place on 28 per cent, while the Coalition improved to 20 per cent.

Those controversies included debate surrounding Hanson’s comments on multiculturalism, paid parental leave and appearances during a European speaking tour. Political opponents argued the issues damaged the party’s appeal among some swing voters, while One Nation maintained the polling fluctuations did not alter broader dissatisfaction with Australia’s political establishment.

Barnaby Joyce has similarly dismissed suggestions that a short-term decline in polling represents a major setback.

He has described opinion polls as useful indicators rather than election results, arguing that public sentiment continues moving away from the traditional two-party system. Joyce says Australians increasingly expect stronger responses on immigration, energy security and the cost of living.

The broader polling trend has nevertheless attracted considerable attention from political strategists.

One Nation’s support has risen substantially compared with its result at the last federal election, leading some analysts to argue Australia’s next election could become significantly less predictable than previous contests. Under Australia’s preferential voting system, strong primary vote growth does not automatically translate into parliamentary seats, but it can reshape contests across regional and outer metropolitan electorates.

Electoral experts caution that converting opinion poll support into seats remains a major challenge for any minor party.

Australia’s preferential voting system means outcomes often depend on how preferences flow after lower-polling candidates are excluded. Candidate quality, local campaigns and regional voting patterns can therefore become just as important as national polling numbers.

Political scientists also note that opinion polls represent snapshots of public opinion rather than predictions of election outcomes.

Support can change rapidly as economic conditions evolve, new policies are announced or political controversies emerge. For that reason, parties across the political spectrum continue treating individual polls with caution even while monitoring longer-term trends.

For One Nation, however, the current figures reinforce its argument that dissatisfaction with the political status quo remains widespread.

The party believes that concerns over household budgets, housing affordability and migration will continue shaping political debate over the coming months. Whether that support ultimately translates into additional parliamentary representation will depend on how voters respond when Australians next return to the ballot box.